ENVIRONMENTAL POLITICS

GLOBAL WARMING ISSUE HEATING UP GOV’S RACE
Californians are now more concerned about global warming than ever before. That according to a survey on the environment just released by the non-partisan Public Policy Institute of California, which has been conducting surveys since 1998. Global warming now ranks third on the list of environmental concerns, just behind air pollution and energy.

NEGATIVE ENERGY FOR ANGELIDES
The poll should be good news for Phil Angelides, who prides himself on his environmental credentials, but instead the latest numbers show Angelides trailing Arnold Schwarzenegger by 13 points: 44 – 30% — the widest margin yet in the campaign for Governor. “It’s not good for Phil Angelides,” according to political analyst and former TV news reporter Steve Swatt.

Swatt tells Capitol Insider, “Angelides is considered the environmental candidate. He was endorsed by the Sierra Club in the primary and a number of other environmental groups. Even with this – he’s down by 13%.”

CAN THE DEMS DELIVER?
Bob Mulholland, senior advisor to Phil Angelides believes the Democrats will capture the environmental vote, saying “Phil Angelides has the endorsements of all the major environmental groups. I don’t think there will be one environmental group behind Schwarzenegger.”

THE JOLLY GREEN GIANT?
But the Schwarzenegger campaign believes environmentalists will rally ’round the Governor, calling him a leader on green issues. Communications Director Katie Levinson says, “Everything from the million solar roofs initiative to the Hydrogen Highway to his work on the Sierra Nevada Conservancy, this Governor has a strong record on environmental issues.”

HOW GREEN IS YOUR WALLET?
Perhpas more important than the environmental support is the impact of the poll on financial donors. They are actively sizing up the candidates now to pick a winner in November…and a 13 point spread is likely to help Arnold Schwarzenegger’s fundraising efforts this summer.

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CONFLICTING POLLS

ZOGBY VS. FIELD
Phil Angelides is leading Arnold Schwarzenegger by two points. No wait – the Gov is ahead of the State Treasurer by 8 points… depending on which poll you believe.

The Zogby poll, conducted online between July 11th and July 19th and commissioned by the Wall Street Journal, shows the Democrats winning the Governor’s race. Then there is a Field Poll conducted between July 10th and 23rd, and sponsored a group of California news organizations showing the incumbent at the top.

HOW COULD TWO POLLS SHOW TWO DIFFERENT WINNERS?
“Any fool can take a poll – and many do” quips political analyst and former TV political reporter Steve Swatt. Swatt says many polls are wrong – as in 1948 when most polls showed Harry Truman losing to Thomas Dewey in the race to the White House, or 1936 when a Literary Digest poll showed Franklin Roosevelt losing to Alf Landon. Of course Roosevelt racked up a huge re-election victory, winning every state but Maine and Vermont. Turns out pollsters back then only sampled folks by telephone at the height of the Depression when most voters couldn’t afford phones – and those folks voted for Roosevelt in record numbers.

DIALING FOR DOLLARS
Financial donors don’t want to give money to losing candidates, so Phil Angelides needs at least one poll showing him a winner – and now he has one in the Zogby poll. “Good poll numbers validate a candidate’s viability and helps raise money,” noted Swatt.

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DEJA VU ALL OVER AGAIN

FAST FORWARD OR REWIND?
The new TV ads for Phil Angelides may look very familiar for those of you old enough to remember the 1966 Governor’s race, when incumbent Pat Brown launched TV ads blasting Ronald Reagan for being an actor. The message to voters back then–Reagan was too inexperienced and too busy mugging in front of a camera to be taken seriously. Brown lost in a landslide. Fast forward now to 2006, and Democrats are unveiling a new ad this weekend with the opening line, “State Treasurer Phil Angelides. He’s a leader, not an actor.”

GOP REAX:
Reaction was swift from the Arnold Schwarzenegger camp, “It should come as no surprise that an ad touting Phil Angelides’ backward-looking policies would use a 40-year-old campaign slogan,” said Katie Levinson , Communications Director of Californians for Schwarzenegger. Levinson added, “Angelides’ campaign rhetoric is as backward-looking as his policy proposals.”

DEMS RESPOND
Meanwhile, Democrats are responding to the new Arnold Schwarzenegger TV ad, which is also launching this weekend. The ad says, “He supported the moratorium on offshore drilling for oil, protecting California’s coast.” In response, Angelides Campaign Manager Cathy Calfo quipped, “The California Republican Party’s ads endorsing the Governor’s environmental record are as believable as Phillip Morris’s ads on teen smoking.”

HOW MUCH LONGER MUST WE TAKE IT?
109 days until the election, in case you were counting.

TEAM ARNOLD IN THE PENALTY BOX

FINE, HOW ARE YOU?
California’s political watchdog, the Fair Political Practices Commission leveled a “substantial” fine of $200,200 against Governor Schwarzenegger’s California Recovery Team on Wednesday. The FPPC found the Gov’s team failed to file campaign reports on time and did not disclose independent expenditures during the November 2005 special elections.

It cited 143 violations of the Government Code. In that special election, all of the Governor’s ballot measures (Props 74, 75,76 and 77) went down to defeat.

DEMS DELIGHT
The Democrats were quick to react. Phil Angelides’ senior advisor tells Capitol Insider, “There is a pattern with Schwarzenegger- he has mishandled the state budget like his campaign fund which led to being fined $200,000- that is a big fine. There are people from Enron, WorldCom and Arthur Andersen in jail for cooking the books like Schwarzenegger has.”

GOP RESPONSE
The Schwarzenegger campaign team called Wednesday’s developments “old news” noting the case was actually settled June 30th – before the FPPC’s official vote – with the watchdog agency concluding the Governor “was not involved in the decision to file or not file” the questionable campaign reports.

THE MOUTH THAT ROARED

WAR OF WORDS
Bob Mulholland, senior advisor to gubernatorial candidate Phil Angelides, is causing discomfort for his boss by taking a controversial swing at the Governor. Mulholland was quoted as saying, “With North Korea leader Kim Jong-Il back in the news, it reminds me that he and Schwarzenegger have something in common. Both have their shoes specifically made to add a couple of inches of lift. What we don’t know is does Kim Jong-Il have his shoes made by Schwarzenegger’s showmaker in Italy.”

STRONG REACTION
Los Angeles is considered to have the largest ethnic Korean population outside of Asia, so reaction was swift from the Korean-American community. Leaders expressed their outrage at linking the Governor to a dictator, and the Governor’s re-election campaign fired back, saying, “It’s clear Phil Angelides isn’t ready to run the largest state in the nation when he can’t manage a single member of his campaign staff.”

WHO’S SORRY NOW
Phil Angelides had to backpeddle a bit, telling reporters the comments by his senior advisor were “inappropriate”. But later in a television interview, Mulholland seemed anything but contrite. Mulholland’s quote, “It was a joke, you know. Schwarzenegger loves making fun of people and he loves people making fun of him, so if Schwarzenegger can’t stand the heat he can get out of the kitchen.” It’s turning into a very warm July.

ALTER POLITICS

MARRIAGE AMENDMENT
Twenty states have constitutional amendments banning gay marriages and California could be next. A group known as VoteYesMarriage.com has the green light to circulate petitions for a ballot measure that would recognize marriage between only a man and a woman. The amendment would throw out domestic partnership rights for same sex couples…rights such as child custody, hospital visitation and community property. Proponent Randy Thomasson tells Capitol Insider, “The people want to override people like Phil Angelides and others who want to override marriage.”

ANGELIDES RESPONSE
In response, the Democratic nominee for Governor tells Capitol Insider, “I don’t think we need to be loading our constitution with a lot of political issues.” The State Treasurer says he would sign a bill legalizing gay marriage, if he becomes Governor.

SCHWARZENEGGER’S DILEMMA
The Governor vetoed a bill legalizing gay marriage last year but tells Capitol Insider, “I have not changed my mind on that. We have to do everything we can to treat everyone equally. I think this is something that has to do with respect. It has to do with tolerance.”

But the Marriage Amendment poses a political challenge for the Governor, according to Barbara O’Connor, who heads up the Institute for the Study of Politics and Media at Sacramento State University. O’Connor tells Capitol Insider, “I think it forces the Governor into a position of having to take a stand” and doing that O’Connor adds, puts the Gov in a no-win situation.

ELECTION IMPACT
Supporters of the California Marriage Amendment now have 4 months to gather 600,000 valid signatures. So while the measure will not be on the ballot this November, political analysts say it’s likely to have an impact on this year’s race for Governor. If petition gatherers are successful, you’ll be seeing the Marriage Amendment on the ballot in 2008.

FRONTRUNNER EMERGES IN GOV’S RACE

GOVERNOR’S NUMBERS ON THE RISE
A new poll released Thursday July 6th by San Jose State University shows Arnold Schwarzenegger with an early lead over his Democratic challenger Phil Angelides by a margin of 44-37%. The Governor’s approval ratings are up, according to the poll, thanks to bi-partisan support for the budget and a $37 billion public works package. Californians will be voting on the infrastructure package this November. San Jose State Professor Melinda Jackson tells Capitol Insider, “The Governor has been taking a more moderate tone, reaching out – and dropping his harsh rhetoric to bring moderates back into the fold.”

THE MOD SQUAD
Moderate, middle-of-the-road voters clearly are the key to the election this November, according to the poll which finds Schwarzenegger holding a 20-point advantage with this crucial group. The poll also identified a potential Achilles heel for the Governor – it’s President Bush. The poll reveals that Californians who disapprove of the President’s job performance have a 93% probability of voting for someone other than Schwarzenegger. “Don’t expect any photo ops any time soon between the Governor and the President” quipped Melinda Jackson.

HOW IT BREAKS DOWN
The Governor’s rise in popularity is fueled primarily by “men, independents, Central Valley voters, whites and conservatives” the study notes. By contrast, liberals, Latinos and blacks dislike the Governor the most…and are much more likely to support Angelides. The Bay Area remains an Angelides stronghold, with 46% of those polled favoring the State Treasurer, while just 34% say they’ll vote for the Governor. However, that’s an improvement for the Gov, who was down 48-27% in the Bay Area just four months ago.

SPIN
In response to the poll, the Governor’s re-election campaign Communications Director Katie Levinson tells Capitol Insider:

“One thing is clear from this poll — Californians support the
Governor’s optimistic and positive vision for moving the state forward
and are rejecting Phil Angelides’ negativity and pessimism. Voters will
have a clear choice in November — and it is clear Phil Angelides’
backward looking policies and $10 billion in new taxes are not sitting
well with Californians.”

Reaction from the Angelides camp comes from Press Secretary Nick Pappas, who tells Capitol Insider, “Californians are just beginning to get to know Phil Angelides and as Californians learn more about education, the environment and putting the state back on the side of middle class families, we are confident we will earn the support of Californians throughout the state. Californians are clearly ready for change — they are ready for a Governor they can count on and they know they can’t count on Arnold Schwarzenegger.”

DEBATES The Angelides campaign has accepted eight invitations for political debates from NBC News and other broadcasters this fall and is challenging the Schwarzenegger folks to do the same. Stay tuned.