CALIFORNIA DREAMING

NOT IN MY HOUSE
Republicans are fighting the idea, but Democrats are convinced they will retake control of Congress after the upcoming elections on November 7th. If so, the new Speaker of the House could be a Californian. San Francisco Congresswoman Nancy Pelosi is the current Minority Leader in Washington D.C. and the heir apparent, should the Republicans lose their majority. “We will win enough” (seats) Pelosi told a crowd of Sacramento supporters working a phone bank for Phil Angelides. Pelosi added, “I believe if the election were held today that the Democrats would win the House of Representatives”. U.S. Senator Barbara Boxer (D) California is even more optimistic, telling Capitol Insider in an exclusive interview, “I think if the election were held today we’d take back both the House and the Senate.” If so, Nancy Pelosi would become the top Democrat in Washington, D.C. right? Not necessarily.

DEMS BALKING
The buzz from D.C. is that some Democrats are pulling the plug on Pelosi. A report in the Washington Times

http://www.washingtontimes.com/national/20061019-115634-1828r.htm

predicts several centrist and conservative Democrats will not support her bid to become Speaker, saying the Bay Area mother of five is too liberal. Is there dissension amongst the Dems? Stay tuned, but the votes in Congress immediately after November 7th could be just as interesting to watch as the results on election day.

NO RETREAT, NO SURRENDER
Republicans aren’t willing to throw in the white towel on Congressional races.
GOP STRATEGIST MATTHEW DOWD, who helped President George Bush win re-election in 2004, is now working to achieve the same result for Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger in California.

When asked about the Congressional races, Dowd offered this assessment, ” I think the Congress today could go either way. I think the Republicans could maintain it – the House and the Senate by one or two or three or four votes – or the Democrats could take it by one of two of three votes.” Dowd concedes however, the Republicans will definitely lose seats in both the House and the Senate. By the way, the magic numbers for Democrats are 15 and 6 – fifteen seats needed to recapture control of the House and six to reclaim a Senate majority.

STAR POWER

YOUR PRESENCE IS VERY APPEALING
The Democrats are expecting a ruling shortly as to whether Phil Angelides must be granted equal time with Jay Leno on The Tonight Show. Earlier this week, Leno invited his friend Arnold Schwarzenegger for about 20 minutes of free airtime right in the middle of the Governor’s race. The Dems are appealing to the Federal Communications Commission.

WRONG STRATEGY?
Around the Capitol, some insiders are wondering why the Democrats didn’t try a different tact. Instead of appealing for equal footing with Jay, why not one-up Arnold by placing Phil on Late Night with Conan O’Brien or the Daily Show with Jon Stewart? The latter show especially would offer Angelides a chance to connect with the young audience he needs to pull off an upset.

The answer from the Angelides campaign:
“Phil’s not an entertainer. He’s a serious policy career professional in government. And we don’t think entertainment shows are probably the best place for that kind of message to get across,” according to Steve Maviglio, who’s on loan to the Angelides campaign from his primary role as communications chief for Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez..

YOU’RE ON THE AIR
However, Phil Angelides will getting some free airtime, according to Maviglio, who says the Democratic nominee is booked for an hour on the Adam Corolla radio show next Thursday October 19th, starting at 9 a.m. There’s also a chance of a TV appearance on the Jimmy Kimmel show as well, but nothing is booked yet.

SPIN DOCTORS

SO WHO REALLY WON?
The political pundits are busy spinning Saturday’s debate between Arnold Schwarzenegger and Phil Angelides. The consensus is that Schwarzenegger did not make any major mistakes, so as Republican consultant and UC Berkeley instructor Dan Schnur put it, “If Arnold Schwarzenegger went into the debate twelve, fifteen points ahead, he probably came out of it in the same position.” Democratic consultant Gale Kaufman agreed that Angelides failed to land the knockout blow he needed. “No I don’t think he did,” said Kaufman, who added, “But I also think that it’s virtually impossible to do that. Somebody’s got to fall off the stage to do a knockout.”

CAMERA SHY
Kaufman was also critical of Phil Angelides’s on-camera performance, “I was a little surprised that he seemed to be looking at the wrong camera for most of the interview and I’m not sure why that or how that happened, but that was a big disappointment as well.”

Disappointing for Dems who got to see only a side view of their party leader and a missed opportunity for Angelides to make a better connection with the TV audience statewide. Or as Gale Kaufman put it, “If you shot a piece of footage to put on the 11 o’clock news, you were pretty much seeing him in profile and that wasn’t the best shot.” By contrast, the Hollywood-trained Governor looked squarely into the camera most of the debate.

LAST DEBATE
Saturday’s debate was the one and only scheduled debate between the two major candidates. It’s unlikely you’ll see Phil Angelides and Arnold Schwarzenegger together again on the same stage before the election, which is now just 29 days away.

TWINS NO MORE

LOVEFEST ON HOLD
Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez says he’s cooling it with the Governor – at least for now. The two friends have looked like twins lately, seemingly joined at the hip for bill signings from the cliffs of Malibu to the Capitol rotunda. None of this has helped Democratic nominee Phil Angelides in his bid to unseat Arnold Schwarzenegger.

NEW TUNE
Perhaps he got a tongue lashing from the party’s top Dems, but on Monday October 2, Fabian Nunez was singing a new tune. “I myself was at several bill signing ceremonies with the Governor,” he told reporters at a Capitol news conference. “That was the month of September,” he said, adding, “This is October. This is campaign season, so I’m going to be very careful not to be seen rubbing shoulders too much with the Governor while I need to be out making sure that I get the Democratic vote out.”

BUSHWACKERS

WELCOME TO CALIFORNIA, NOW GO HOME

On the eve of President Bush’s visit to California, two of the
Capitol’s top Democrats are trying to stick him with the bill for federal responsibilities…an invoice for $6.5 billion to be exact. San Mateo Senator Jackie Speier joins with Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez in a Capitol news conference on Monday October 2, to present the President with a bill for homeland security and education costs they say the federal government has passed on to California.
Price tag: $6.5 billion
Political Points: Priceless.

There’s no risk for the Dems in taking a dig at the President, since his popularity ratings have sunk to a near record low in the Golden State. 63% of Californians disapprove of the President, according to the latest poll from the Public Policy Institute of California, while only 35% approve of Mr. Bush. More telling perhaps is that one-third (34%) of California Republicans give the President a thumbs down, according to the poll.

DIALING FOR DOLLARS
Despite the low numbers, the President is coming to Stockton on Tuesday
October 3rd to raise money for Congressman Richard Pombo of Tracy.
Later that same day, the President will shuttle to El Dorado Hills
for another fundraiser, this one on behalf of Republican Congressman
John Doolittle, who faces a competitive race against his Democratic
challenger Charles Brown.

DEM LOVE-FEST CONTINUES
After Monday’s Bush-bashing event, Assembly Speaker Nunez will join with fellow Democrat and Senate President Pro Tem Don Perata with their new best friend – Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, to campaign together on Tuesday October 3rd, in support of the $37 billion bond package on the November ballot.

The Democractic Duo has been seen frequently flanking the Governor at bill-signing
ceremonies around the state, praising him at every opportunity for
signing their measures into law (Global Warming Solutions,
Minimum Wage Hike, Prescription Drug Discounts and the list goes on).
Noticeably absent from the bond campaign trail will be Phil Angelides, who is after all, the Democratic nominee for Governor.

FOREVER FRIENDS
Fabian and Arnold are really tight, prompting the Governor to joke
last Friday, “We are getting along very well. He has taken me out for dinner. He has taken me out for drinks. And tomorrow we are going to go dancing,” sending the Capitol crowd howling with laughter. When I asked Nunez directly if he were giving the Governor plenty of free publicity for his re-election campaign, he replied, “Well you know, it is what it is. When the Governor is signing your bill, it makes sense to be there.”

As for Phil Angelides, he must be thinking, “With friends like that, who needs enemies.”